Last week, I split the waiver wire into two different questions. In the September 15 column, I froze a market prediction and a separate recommendation board. Then the September 16 receipts post graded what fantasy managers actually did.
The structure stays the same this week, with one addition: before making new calls, I have to grade whether last week’s recommendations survived another game.
That gives this column three jobs. First, receipts. Second, predict who everyone will add. Third, decide who they should add.
The first board predicts behavior. The second tries to predict opportunity.
And those are not necessarily the same thing.
THE RECEIPTS
Last week’s recommendation board was Malik Washington, Devaughn Vele and Kaelon Black. The question was not whether they would immediately score the most fantasy points. It was whether the roles I bought would still look real after another Sunday.
| Player | Week 1 thesis | Week 2 check | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Washington | REAL / PRIORITY; 97% route rate, 8 targets | Route rate fell to ~75%; 5 targets, 4-43; still ahead of Douglas in targets | CONFIRMED |
| Devaughn Vele | REAL / PRIORITY; clear temporary WR2 | 7 targets, 5-64; 16 targets through two weeks | CONFIRMED |
| Kaelon Black | PARTIAL / PRIORITY; standalone + contingency | 15 touches fell to 7 carries; no targets | TOO EARLY |
Malik Washington — CONFIRMED, WITH A CAVEAT
Washington caught four of five targets for 43 yards against San Francisco and added a carry. Caleb Douglas caught two passes for 19 yards on three targets.
The good news is the part I cared about most: Washington again earned more targets than Douglas, and through two games he leads him 13 to 10.
But the role did not hold perfectly. Washington’s route participation fell from 97% in Week 1 to roughly three-quarters of Miami’s dropbacks in Week 2. Last week I explicitly asked whether the near-every-down role would survive. The honest answer is: not completely.
I’m keeping the grade at CONFIRMED because the reason I preferred Washington — target earning within the Miami receiver competition — held up. But this is not a victory lap. The participation drop is now part of the file.
Devaughn Vele — CONFIRMED
Five catches. Seven targets. 64 yards. No touchdown required.
After seven catches on nine targets in Week 1, Vele now has 12 receptions on 16 targets through two games. The Saints’ Week 1 passing volume came back to earth. Vele’s role survived it.
That is exactly what I wanted to see.
CONFIRMED.
Kaelon Black — TOO EARLY
Black is where the grading has to stay uncomfortable.
He went from 15 touches in Week 1 to seven carries for 25 yards in Week 2, with no targets. That is a meaningful decline, not something to wave away because I liked the original pick.
The original diagnosis was PARTIAL because Black had standalone rushing work behind Christian McCaffrey plus enormous contingency value. He still received seven of San Francisco’s 21 running-back carries while McCaffrey had 10, so the role is not gone. It is also nowhere near confirmed.
TOO EARLY.
Malik Washington — CONFIRMED
Devaughn Vele — CONFIRMED
Kaelon Black — TOO EARLY
Two confirmed. One unresolved. I’ll take it.
ELIGIBILITY SNAPSHOT
Same rule as last week: RBs, WRs and TEs must be rostered in no more than 50% of ESPN leagues. I froze this snapshot on September 22 rather than letting waiver movement rewrite the player pool.
| Player | Pos. | ESPN rostered |
|---|---|---|
| Jonah Coleman, DEN | RB | 27% |
| Denzel Boston, CLE | WR | 26% |
| Dalton Schultz, HOU | TE | 21% |
| Adonai Mitchell, NYJ | WR | 16% |
| Dontayvion Wicks, PHI | WR | 26% |
| Tre Tucker, LV | WR | 25% |
| Emanuel Wilson, SEA | RB | 1% |
THE FRAMEWORK, BRIEFLY
| Layer | Labels | What it answers |
|---|---|---|
| Receipt grade | CONFIRMED / TOO EARLY / FADING / BUSTED | Did last week’s recommendation survive new football? |
| Role verdict | REAL / PARTIAL / MIRAGE | How trustworthy is the underlying opportunity? |
| Action | PRIORITY / CONDITIONAL / CAUTION | How aggressively should I act on it? |
WHO EVERYONE WILL ADD
This is not my recommendation board. I’m trying to predict your league mates.
I’m looking for the performances staring at people when they open the waiver page: touchdowns, giant yardage totals, suddenly relevant running backs and the guys who just spent Sunday detonating on somebody’s bench.
1. Jonah Coleman, RB, Denver
This one has everything a waiver-wire frenzy needs: rookie running back, touchdown, injuries in front of him.
RJ Harvey missed Week 2 with a hamstring issue. Then J.K. Dobbins hurt his hamstring against Jacksonville. Coleman went from three offensive snaps in Week 1 to 10 carries for 39 yards and a touchdown plus three catches for 19 yards.
After Dobbins exited, Coleman played nine more snaps than Tyler Badie. Now fantasy managers get to imagine the best possible version of the story: What if he’s Denver’s starting running back next week?
Maybe he is. Maybe he isn’t. For this section, it almost doesn’t matter.
Market prediction: No. 1.
2. Denzel Boston, WR, Cleveland
Boston followed his Week 1 touchdown with five catches on seven targets for 95 yards and another score in Week 2.
The touchdown will get the clicks. The usage is why he belongs in this article.
The Week 2 line was not a random touchdown spike. Boston drew a team-high seven targets after already operating as a full-time receiver in the opener.
The market gets the big play. The role gives it permission to believe.
Market prediction: No. 2.
3. Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston
Twelve catches. 140 yards.
That’s the paragraph.
Okay, not really.
Schultz was already involved before the eruption: RotoWire charted him with eight targets in Week 1, second on Houston, and he caught four of them for 35 yards. Then Nico Collins missed Week 2 and Schultz drew 14 targets, catching 12 for 140.
There are reasons to question whether anything close to that survives when Houston gets healthier. Nobody opening the waiver page is going to perform that autopsy before noticing 12-140 next to a tight end’s name.
Market prediction: No. 3.
WHO THEY SHOULD ADD
This is where the rules change.
Forget Sunday’s fantasy leaderboard. I’m looking for targets, routes, snaps, carries, injuries, depth charts and repeatability.
The framework has to discipline me instead of merely decorating the article.
Week 2 targets among the four wide receivers most central to this week’s recommendation debate.
1. Adonai Mitchell, WR, New York Jets — REAL / PRIORITY
Here I go again.
Tre Tucker had 119 yards and a touchdown Sunday. Adonai Mitchell had 63 yards and no touchdowns.
Guess which one I’m taking?
Mitchell caught six passes against Green Bay.
Fine.
He had 63 yards.
Fine.
He was targeted 12 times.
There it is.
Mitchell commanded a 33% target share and led the Jets in targets. He has now produced at least 60 receiving yards in each of his first two games. In Week 1, he got there on three targets. In Week 2, the opportunity exploded.
Tucker’s 119 yards are already in somebody else’s Week 2 score. Mitchell’s 12 targets are information about what might happen next.
Verdict: REAL. Action: PRIORITY.
2. Denzel Boston, WR, Cleveland — REAL / PRIORITY
Boston is where the framework gets useful.
Five catches, seven targets, 95 yards and a touchdown could look like exactly the kind of box-score chase this column is supposed to resist. Except the role was already there.
Before the Week 2 explosion, Boston had played 92% of Cleveland’s Week 1 snaps, led the Browns’ wide receivers in routes and tied for the team lead in both target share and first-read share. Then he followed it with a team-high seven targets in Week 2.
That is why Boston moves ahead of Dontayvion Wicks on my board. Wicks has been efficient, but his snap share fell sharply in Week 2. Boston’s participation has been steadier and the target volume grew with it.
Verdict: REAL. Action: PRIORITY.
3. Jonah Coleman, RB, Denver — PARTIAL / CONDITIONAL
Coleman’s Week 2 opportunity was real. The question is how much belongs to Coleman and how much belongs to Denver’s injury report.
Dobbins left with a hamstring injury. Harvey was already unavailable because of one. Coleman went from essentially irrelevant in Week 1 to 13 touches in Week 2.
That is exactly how fantasy running backs emerge. It is also why I’m not calling him REAL.
If Dobbins and Harvey both return, the backfield can get crowded quickly. If one or both miss time, Coleman suddenly has access to something fantasy managers cannot manufacture on waivers very often: starting running-back volume.
Verdict: PARTIAL. Action: CONDITIONAL.
Bid aggressively if the injury news leaves Coleman with a clear path to meaningful Week 3 work. Don’t bid as though the depth chart has permanently changed before anyone knows that it has.
THE FIRST THREE OUT
1. Dontayvion Wicks — PARTIAL / CONDITIONAL
Wicks has 147 receiving yards through two games. That’s nice. It is not the reason to add him.
The underlying usage is more complicated. Wicks played 91% of Philadelphia’s offensive snaps in Week 1, then fell to roughly the low-60s in Week 2 while still drawing six targets.
That is not a REAL role yet.
The targets surviving the snap decline is encouraging. The snap decline is why I refuse to promote him based on the yardage alone.
If this column is going to tell everyone else to stop chasing box scores, I probably shouldn’t hand out REAL because somebody has 147 yards.
Verdict: PARTIAL. Action: CONDITIONAL.
2. Emanuel Wilson — PARTIAL / CONDITIONAL
Wilson carried 21 times for 92 yards in Week 2 and accounted for more than half of Seattle’s rushing attempts.
Jadarian Price left the game with a chest injury, which helped create the final workload. That is why Wilson is not REAL yet.
So why is Coleman still above him despite Wilson getting 21 carries to Coleman’s 13 touches?
Because Coleman’s path is potentially being cleared from two directions. Harvey already missed Week 2 and Dobbins then left with a hamstring injury. If either remains unavailable, Coleman has a direct route to meaningful work; if both are limited, the ceiling changes quickly. Wilson’s Week 3 value is more directly tied to Price’s status and whether Seattle preserves Sunday’s split.
That could change fast. If the injury news breaks Wilson’s way, so does the ranking.
Verdict: PARTIAL. Action: CONDITIONAL.
3. Tre Tucker — PARTIAL / CAUTION
Five catches. Seven targets. 119 yards. A touchdown.
That is how you get waiver claims.
Tucker’s seven targets and roughly one-quarter share are real enough to keep him out of MIRAGE. But unlike Boston, he did not enter Week 2 with the same near-full-time participation and route evidence already established. His waiver case is being pushed much harder by one enormous Sunday.
If my choice is between paying for Tucker’s 119-yard game or Mitchell’s 12-target game, I’m buying Mitchell.
Verdict: PARTIAL. Action: CAUTION.
THE TOUCHDOWN TRAP
Darren Waller scored twice Sunday.
Cody White scored twice Sunday.
Congratulations to everyone who had “Cody White scores two touchdowns” on their Week 2 bingo card. Please also send tomorrow’s lottery numbers.
This is where MIRAGE earns its keep.
Waller has only five targets through two games. White scored twice on two targets while playing seven snaps, which is less a sustainable fantasy role and more a magic trick.
If you want to chase that, be my guest. Just understand that you are buying the rabbit after it already came out of the hat.
Darren Waller — MIRAGE / CAUTION.
Cody White — MIRAGE / CAUTION.
MIRAGE does not mean these players can never score again. It means the fantasy production is running well ahead of the opportunity underneath it.
THE FROZEN BOARD
No editing it Wednesday morning. No moving someone up because another analyst ranked him first. No pretending I always loved somebody after the waiver report comes out.
WHO EVERYONE WILL ADD
| Rank | Player | Call |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonah Coleman | DEN RB |
| 2 | Denzel Boston | CLE WR |
| 3 | Dalton Schultz | HOU TE |
WHO THEY SHOULD ADD
| Rank | Player | Call |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adonai Mitchell | NYJ WR — REAL / PRIORITY |
| 2 | Denzel Boston | CLE WR — REAL / PRIORITY |
| 3 | Jonah Coleman | DEN RB — PARTIAL / CONDITIONAL |
FIRST THREE OUT
| Rank | Player | Call |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dontayvion Wicks | PHI WR — PARTIAL / CONDITIONAL |
| 2 | Emanuel Wilson | SEA RB — PARTIAL / CONDITIONAL |
| 3 | Tre Tucker | LV WR — PARTIAL / CAUTION |
THE POINT
Tre Tucker gave you 119 yards and a touchdown on Sunday.
Adonai Mitchell gave you 12 targets.
One of those numbers already scored fantasy points.
The other might tell you where the next ones are coming from.
I’ll take the targets.
Freeze the board.
SOURCES
Sources: RotoWire for the standardized Week 1 usage baseline used in the September 15 framework; NFL.com / Next Gen Stats and official game logs for Week 2 usage and results; ESPN rostership figures as reported in current Week 3 waiver coverage from NFL.com, FantasyPros and FantasyAlarm. Eligibility snapshot frozen September 22, 2026.
